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Predicting The 2006 NASCAR Season?

There is flux in any sport, but over the years, for the most part, NASCAR has remained remarkably steady. This seemed to end rather abruptly when Brian France took over beginning with the 2004 season.

Perhaps the term “flux” is a bit of an understatement because during these past two seasons the level of general confusion and controversy has reached proportions that have made the management and governing of the sport look, well, very amateurish. And the word “amateur” is not one I ever thought I would apply to NASCAR racing.

While technically, racing is a complicated sport, basically the goal is simple. The first one over the finish line wins. Where qualifying was at one time explained simply as the guy who goes the fastest in a single lap wins the pole, many a good ‘ol regular fan would be hard pressed to explain the current procedure to a novice. I would be hard pressed to explain it, and even though I could in plain English, tell a newcomer exactly how qualifying works, I know in my heart that at the end of my explanation most would look at me and say, “What?” And this is just one example of how a basic, uncomplicated, dynamic and exciting display of competition has reached the point where many don’t even bother to try to understand those little nuances that make each and every sport that much more enjoyable. As derided as us “old dogs” are, at least we had a thorough understanding of the sport we loved not to mention the ability to explain it.

And one image that constantly comes to mind, is that in just about every interview that I’ve seen concerning the “new” NASCAR, Bill France, Jr. when asked what, if any, words of advice did he impart to his young protégé, usually states, quite bluntly I might add, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

As we prepare to enter the 2006 season, we are again faced with what boils down to a feeling of starting over. New rules concerning tires and testing, model and body style changes to the Fords and Chevy’s, to impound or not to impound, should the points system be “tweaked”, and the worst of the worst, should NASCAR become involved in the heretofore taboo territory of team tampering to prevent the rapidly growing mini sport of pursuing and raiding employees from other teams long before their contracts are scheduled to expire.

At the beginning of last year, I put forth my opinion of how I thought many teams would modify their tactics at the start of the season in an effort to better maximize their chance at making the Chase. For the most part, I seem to have been fairly on target. Most seem to abandon consistency and include a bit more aggression early on in the season. But once those ten, with the exception of Mark Martin, that were lucky enough to survive and find themselves in the Chase, consistency again came to the forefront throughout those final ten races. Mark Martin however, only knows one way to race, and it has always been a combination of sturdy determination and total consistency, tempered with an ounce of aggression. He is and always has been in his own league, and while “greatness” touches many drivers, few have that steadiness that Martin shows each time he takes to the racetrack.

Throughout these past weeks when the racing news has not only been sparse but almost non existent, when most columnists have recapped the 2005 season and are now starting to put forth their “predictions” for 2006, I too considered putting forth my thoughts on how teams would attack the challenges of next year. I’ve put a great deal of thought into it, and guess what? I haven’t got a clue. As a matter of fact, the only team I feel will show the same strength and dynamics that it showed during 2005 is the Home Depot #20 of Tony Stewart although I do see Greg Biffle and perhaps Carl Edwards continuing the success that they had in 2005. With regard to all the other teams, it strikes me as pretty much a crapshoot.

With all the driver and crew changes, I even considered doing another map similar to the one I put together outlining the 2007 television season. But that one made me so dizzy not to mention nauseous while I was doing it, I just didn’t feel up to it. Of course, that could have been a result of overloading on Christmas goodies.

To sum up, my predictions for the 2006 season are that it will likely be totally unpredictable.

To all those “Fantasy” racing enthusiasts, good luck. I’m thinking it will take all of us about half the season to figure out just who should be included in our ideal imaginary team.

 
And then we’ll immediately change our teams up once again.

In closing out what is now my second year with Insider Racing News, I must extend my sincere thanks to our remarkable editor Ron Felix for consistently (there’s that word again) providing a site that allows a diverse and entertaining view of the world of NASCAR. His attention to detail and his constant effort to provide valuable help and insight simply cannot be overlooked.